VIDEO PRESENTS

The new week begins with the most important data on jobs in the US and Canada. For today, stocks are higher, US yields are lower, and the USD is down against all major currencies, with the dollar moving the most against the AUD (down -1.11%) and NZD (-1.09%). It is also lower by around -0.85% against the EUR, CAD and GBP as markets react to news of Trump’s tariffs.

The video above shows the technical characteristics that drive the 3 major currency pairs – EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start a new trading day.

Key business reports will be released on Friday. US non-farm payrolls are expected to show an increase of 154,000 from 227,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2%. Canada’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged from the month (6.8%), with a change in employment of +24.5K from 50.5K last month.

Other key data for the week include

• ISM services PMI on Tuesday. Expectations are 53.2 to 52.1
• Swiss CPI on Tuesday with expectations of -0.1% vs. -0.1% last month.
• New JOLTS jobs will also be released on Tuesday and are expected to increase moderately to 7.77 million from 7.74 million
• Australia’s annual consumer price index will be released at 19:30 ET on Tuesday (Wednesday in Australia) with expectations of 2.2% versus 2.1% last month
• The ADP change in non-farm payrolls will be released on Wednesday and is expected to come in at 131,000 versus 146,000 last month.
• The minutes of the FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday at 2 p.m. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at its last meeting, but also forecast 2 rate cuts in 2025, up from 4 rate cuts in its previous estimate in September.

Market shift.

• Trump proposed tariff plan: The Washington Post reported that Trump aides are considering tariffs on critical imports related to national or economic security, applied to all countries but limited to certain sectors.
• Market Impact: The dollar fell on the news, with USD/JPY falling from 157.80 to 156.83 and EUR/USD rising from 1.0342 to a high of 1.0432

The plan is thought to be a lighter shock and spread.

In today’s European economic data:

• German Prelim CPI m/m: Actual 0.4%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous -0.2% →MORE
• Retail and/or (CHF): Actual 0.8%, Forecast 1.3%, Previous 1.5% → LOWER
• Spanish PMI Service: Actual 57.3, Forecast 54.1, Previous 53.1 → MORE
• Italian PMI Service: Actual 50.7, Forecast 50.0, Previous 49.2 → MORE
• French Final Services PMI: Actual 49.3, Forecast 48.2, Previous 48.2 → MORE
• German Final Services PMI: Actual 51.2, Forecast 51.0, Previous 51.0 → MORE
• Eurozone Final Services PMI: Actual 51.6, Forecast 51.4, Previous 51.4 → MORE
• Sentix Investor Confidence (EUR): Actual -17.7, Forecast -17.7, Previous -17.5 → MET
• UK Final Services PMI: Actual 51.1, Forecast 51.4, Previous 51.4 → LOWER

China’s services sector expanded faster in December 2024, with services PMI rising to 52.2 (expected: 51.7, previously: 51.5), driven by strong domestic demand and promotional efforts, marking the fastest new business growth in the last five months. However, export jobs declined, employment fell due to cost concerns, and backlogs widened due to rising input costs and wages. Sales prices rose for the first time in six months, reflecting increased cost pressures. While government policies boosted sentiment, business confidence fell near its lowest level since March 2020 due to competition and weak international trade.

China’s composite PMI fell to 51.4 (previously: 52.3) as weak manufacturing offset growth in services, with new orders slowing and employment falling reflecting subdued private sector optimism. Overall, the sector shows steady growth but faces challenges from global trade and costs.

US stocks rose sharply on Friday and are trading higher today. The major indexes started the new year with a modestly lower first-week close. The future implies:

• Dow +172 points (up 339.86 points or 0.80% on Friday)
• S&P +47 points (up 73.92 or 1.26% on Friday)
• Nasdaq +231 points (up 340.88 points or 1.77% on Friday)

In the US debt market, yields are lower:

• 2 years 4.247%, -3.1 basis points
• 5-year 4.383%, -2.6 basis points
• 10 years 4.579%, -1.6 basis points
• 30 years 4.798%, -1.5 basis points

In other markets:

• Crude oil rose last week on hopes for China and freezing temperatures, and is up 0.53% or 0.71% today at $74.53
• Gold is trading unchanged at $2,646
• Silver rose $0.71 or 2.40% to $30.31
• Bitcoin is trading at $99,315. Today’s high reached only $100K at $99,857

In three major currencies, technically speaking:

EURUSD. EURUSD rallied on news of Trump’s tariffs and that took the price to the mid-50% retracement from the December high at 1.0426. Get up and stay over would target a key area of ​​the swing that should be hard to break on the first look. That area is between 1.0448 and 1.0461

USDJPY:

GBPUSD: