Signals for the lira against the US dollar today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish entry points:
- Open a purchase account at 35.20.
- Place a stop-loss order below 34.95.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half of the contract with a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance level 35.50.
Bearish entry points:
- Place a sales order for 35.50.
- Place a stop loss order at or above 35.60.
- Move stop loss to entry point and follow profit with price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half of the contract with a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support level at 35.29.
Turkish lira analysis:
The USD/TRY pair rallied at the start of the new year, as the price continued a series of limited daily gains, supporting the pair in continuing to set new record highs. This week, the price reached a new high of 35.42 lira, amid expectations of continued growth in the pair in light of the current shift in monetary policy. The Central Bank of Turkey approved the first interest rate cut in December by 250 basis points. The cut is seen as a shift in monetary policy that has been tightening for more than a year and a half, raising interest rates from mid-2023 to 50% before stabilizing for several months until last December.
According to data, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported a 3.1% drop in exports in November compared to the same month last year, with exports reaching $18.29 billion. On the other hand, imports decreased by 27.1% to $22.7 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $4.41 billion, down 49% from November 2022. Meanwhile, the import-export coverage ratio it reached 79.4%, compared to 74.9% in the previous month.
Meanwhile, Turkey announced a 6% increase in fuel taxes effective Tuesday, the finance minister said earlier in the week. This tax increase comes as part of a series of measures to increase revenue and reduce the budget deficit. Also, the Minister of Finance explained that this step is aimed at improving the state budget and dealing with current economic challenges. Experts expect that the increase will have a limited effect on the level of fuel consumption, but may lead to a slight increase in the prices of goods and services related to transportation. They also stated that these measures could help control inflation, with the expectation of greater stability of the Turkish economy in 2025.
TRYUSD technical analysis and expectations today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair maintained a limited upward momentum, recording new record levels at 35.42 lira during the current week. Moreover, the pair is stabilizing above the ascending trend line. The pair is also receiving support from a move above the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour time frame. On the longer time frame, the pair stabilized above the second ascending trend line. As well as with the price movement above the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Finally, the Turkish lira price forecast tends to continue the rise of the dollar against the lira as the pair targets levels of 35.50 and 35.75, respectively.
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