Angus Reid’s latest Canadian-language poll has the ruling Liberals at 16%, which could leave them with just 5 seats in parliament.

There have been a number of reports of various regional club riots over the past few days and it appears that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on the back foot.

Now Globe & Mail columnist Lawrence Martin is tweeting:

Everyone is preparing for Trudeau’s resignation announcement, which is expected by Monday.

The wording in that report is a bit cryptic and it doesn’t say it’s Trudeau will deviate or exactly who is ‘preparing’ or ‘expecting’ it. He is certainly well-connected as a political columnist in Canada’s leading newspapers for decades.

At Polymarket, the odds of resigning before February are 50% (although the site is not open to Canadians). There is second smoke here too with a report saying Mark Carney has reached out to ‘dozens’ of MPs to find out about his leadership chances.

The tricky part here is that the Liberal Party is unlikely to have time to run a proper leadership race as opposition parties may topple the government at the end of the month. This could lead to a situation where an interim leader like Carney tries to limit the damage and then tries to use his success (ranking low in current polls) to try to remain leader.

A separate report said the Liberal caucus would meet on Wednesday.