A screen shows the Kospi index and the exchange rate between the South Korean won and the U.S. dollar in a Hana Bank trading room in Seoul, South Korea on Monday, December 16, 2024.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
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What you need to know today
All eyes are on the US jobs report
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December will be released later on Friday. Economists expect an increase of 155,000 jobs, up from 227,000 in November, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%. Analysts from Goldman Sachs And CitigroupHowever, they assume that both numbers will be worse than the consensus forecast.
Markets in the US are dark, markets in Europe are closing higher
US markets were closed on Thursday in honor of former US President Jimmy Carter, who died in late December at the age of 100. Europe regionally Stoxx 600 The index gained 0.42% after starting the day in negative territory. Denmark’s Moller-Maersk fell 5.8% on a broader selloff in shipping stocks after U.S. dockworkers failed to secure a tentative labor contract.
Fed governor believes December rate cut should be ‘final step’
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed’s rate cut in December was its “final step in the policy recalibration period.” That suggests Bowman, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, may oppose further cuts this year. Other Fed officials who spoke this week were more optimistic about a rate cut.
Ubisoft explores “strategic and capitalist options”
French video game publisher Ubisoft said on Thursday that it had appointed “senior advisors” to consider options “to achieve the best value for stakeholders.” In October, it was reported that Ubisoft’s founding family Guillemot and Tencent were considering a takeover of the company. With Ubisoft shares at their lowest level in 10 years, the company is facing questions about its future.
(PRO) Sweet spot for job reports
The US economy finds itself in a delicate situation between growth and inflation. The jobs report released on Friday shows how difficult this balancing act is. Too hot and Treasury yields could rise; Too cold and fears of an economic slowdown could stop stock prices, said Goldman Sachs. But the S&P 500 could recover if the report is just in the right range.
The end result
South Korea can’t catch a break. Last month, the country was placed under martial law, its sitting – and deputy – president was impeached, is (so far) its second sitting president, and suffered a tragic plane crash.
How have these events affected the Korean market?
Measured by the Kospi index: not much. The index, which tracks all common stocks listed on the Korean stock exchange, is now higher than it was on Dec. 3, when impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.
Their resilience can be traced to Korea’s political history and the Bank of Korea’s rapid – and perhaps haphazard – actions.
Yoon and Han Duck-soo are only the two youngest presidents in Korean history to be impeached. Before them, Roh Moo-hyun was indicted in 2004 (although the court overturned it), while Park Geun-hye was indicted in 2016 and removed from office the following year.
“Presidential impeachment proceedings are not unprecedented in Korea, and at least the country’s stocks did quite well last year, 2016-2017,” said Thomas Mathews, Asia Pacific market head at Capital Economics.
The uncertainties caused by Korea’s last two impeachment trials “have subsided within three to six months,” Soohyung Lee, a member of the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Committee, told CNBC on Jan. 2, so “it is possible that the political “Unrest will not last that long.” a major burden on the country’s economy.”
The Bank of Korea’s measures also appeared to calm markets.
On the day Yoon lifted martial law, the BOK announced emergency measures to calm markets and prevent volatility. Likewise, a surprise 25 basis point rate cut by the BOK at its November meeting, decided before Yoon declared martial law in December, could have cushioned the blow.
Internal factors are unlikely to pose the biggest threat to the Korean economy and markets in the coming year. The downside risks posed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs are more worrisome, especially for an export-oriented country like Korea, Lee said.
Korea’s recent troubles show that when one branch of government fails, other institutions can still support a country and its economy – but it is much harder to negotiate with the governments of others.
— CNBC’s Lim Hui Jie and Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.