Signals for the lira against the US dollar today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish entry points:
- Open a purchase account at 35.10.
- Place a stop loss order below 34.85.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half of the contract with a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance level 35.50.
Bearish entry points:
- Place a sales order for 35.50.
- Place a stop loss order at or above 35.60.
- Move stop loss to entry point and follow profit with price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half of the contract with a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support level at 35.29.
Turkish lira analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has stabilized near its all-time high, which it reached at the end of last week. The pair was trading at 35.29 lira levels, as the lira heads for a year-to-date close on losses after falling approximately 18% against the dollar.
Last Thursday, the Central Bank of Turkey announced a reduction in interest rates from 50% to 47.5%. This is the first interest rate cut in about 22 months. Moreover, these changes in monetary policy come after a relative decline in the level of inflation. Apparently, this comes after the Central Bank of Turkey kept the interest rate unchanged for eight consecutive meetings.
Meanwhile, investors followed the Turkish Bankers Association’s announcement of the completion of major updates and verification of currency counting machines. These extraordinary measures came in response to the proliferation of large quantities of counterfeit $50 and $100 bills in Turkish markets. Furthermore, banks and exchange offices have taken strict measures to limit the negative impact of this problem on the economy.
As for the data, Turkish Trade Minister Omar Bulat said the country’s economy is on track to reach $1.3 trillion in gross domestic product this year. He also confirmed Turkey’s success in reducing the foreign trade deficit by 27 billion dollars in the first 11 months of this year, which reflects a significant improvement in the foreign trade balance.
Other data shows that the Turkish Statistical Institute reported an increase in average annual household income to 374,899 Turkish lira ($10,668) in 2024, a 106.9% increase from the previous year. Despite the optimistic data, experts warn about the influence of the increase in wages and income in general on the rate of inflation, which is difficult to control by the country’s economic team.
TRYUSD technical analysis and expectations today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair rose close to the peak recorded last week at 35.29 lira. The pair stabilized above the uptrend line as well as the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour time frame, indicating the dominance of the overall uptrend in the medium-term time frame. Also, on a longer time frame, the price is receiving support from another ascending trend line. Meanwhile, the price is moving above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Furthermore, the Turkish lira price forecast tends to continue the rise of the dollar against the lira. Any decline represents an opportunity to buy again, with target levels of 35.50 and 35.70, respectively.
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