Signals for the lira against the US dollar today
Bullish entry points:
- Open a purchase order at 35.15.
- Place a stop-loss order below 34.95.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half of the contract with a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance level at 35.50.
Bearish entry points:
- Place a sell order for 35.50.
- Place a stop loss order at or above 35.60.
- Move stop loss to entry point and follow profit with price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half of the contract with a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support level at 35.29.
Turkish lira analysis:
The USD/TRY pair stabilized early this week, failing to surpass the peak recorded at the end of 2024 at 35.42 liras. The reports revealed a return of support from the Turkish financial and monetary authorities to the lira price, with the pair stabilizing in a narrow range despite the Turkish central bank’s interest rate cut at its last meeting in 2024, where the rate was cut by 250 basis points to 47.5%.
In a breakdown of the data, the Turkish Statistical Institute said in its report released on Friday that Turkey’s annual inflation rate fell to 44.38% in December, compared to 47.09% in the previous month. Education and housing prices recorded the highest annual growth of 91.64% and 69.03%, respectively. Meanwhile, the smallest increases were in the transportation and clothing and footwear categories of 25.88% and 32.32%, respectively. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.04% in December, boosted by a 2.78% increase in the prices of furniture and household appliances.
After these data, the Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Simsek said that the latest data show a drop in the inflation rate in Turkey in December to the lowest level in the last 19 months. Furthermore, Šimšek attributed this decline to the success of government policies, which managed to reduce rates by about 20% compared to the average in the last two years. In addition, the Turkish minister confirmed that economic policies support the implementation of the inflation control program.
Currently, expectations for a cut in interest rates this year are widening, following statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that hinted in that regard. While data on inflation, which declined in December, may support an increase in the pace of these cuts.
TRYUSD technical analysis and expectations today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair stabilized within a narrow trading range, as the pair stabilized below the peak recorded at the end of 2024 at 35.42 lira. At the same time, the pair is supported by trading above the ascending trend line shown on the chart. Obviously, this is related to the price trading above the 50-period moving average on the four-hour time frame. At the same time, the price is trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which indicates an overall upward trend that dominates the movement of the pair. The Turkish lira price forecast tends to continue the rise of the dollar against the lira as the pair targets levels of 35.50 and 35.75, respectively.
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