• Can crude oil futures be bought or sold today (January 6, 2025)?
• Can gold futures be bought or sold today (January 6, 2025)?
• Bank of America sees potential for strong Chinese equity growth in the second half of 2025
• The PBOC will issue a record amount of offshore yuan in Hong Kong this month
• Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold Forecast, Gold Won’t Reach $3000 in 2025
• North Korea has fired another ballistic missile
• Trudeau is likely to resign, but has yet to make a final decision
• Trump insists on tariffs, tax cuts, energy in the USA
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is giving little indication of the timing of a rate hike – depending on the data
• CAD strengthens to open the new week
• China December Caixin Services PMI 52.2 (vs. 51.5 in November)
• The Shanghai Stock Exchange promises to deepen the opening of capital markets
• CAD Prime Minister Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation before a national caucus meeting on Wednesday
• Chinese financial media said the PBoC’s announcement sent a stronger signal of a stable yuan exchange rate
• PBOC sets USD/CNY benchmark rate for today at 7.1876 (vs expectations of > 7.20)
• All eyes on PBoC yuan benchmark today – will it go above 7.20?
• MUFG expects EUR/USD to be below parity – Trump’s tariffs will hit quickly
• Japan Final Services PMI (December 2024): 50.9 (previously 50.5)
• UBS says to watch Chinese stocks cautiously – weak spending, looming US tariffs
• MUFG bearish GBP, cite upcoming Bank of England cuts, gas price vulnerability
• News from Great Britain – More than half of businesses plan to raise prices in the next three months.
• Weekend – The People’s Bank of China promised more stimulus to boost spending
• RBA intervention in Aussie potentially draws attention (ps. not going to happen)
• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI for December 50.8 (previously 50.5)
• China Services PMI Due: What to Expect and How It’s Likely to Affect Stocks and the Yuan
• Trade Ideas Thread – Monday January 6 Insightful Charts, Technical Analysis, Ideas
• Monday Morning Open Levels – Indicative Currency Prices – 06 Jan 2025
• Weekly Market Outlook (06-10 January)
• Trudeau expected to resign ‘by Monday’ – report
• Fed’s Kugler: Job not done on inflation
• Newsquawk week ahead: US NFP, FOMC minutes, ISM Services PMI, China and EC inflation

Over the weekend, we had comments from Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler along with San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly saying that while progress has been made in reducing inflation, there is still work to be done. Valuation seemed to weigh on gold during the session here, keeping it below $2,650.

The impact on the exchange rate, however, was difficult to determine. EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP all rose.

CAD responded more to the indication that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is likely to step down. The announcement could come as early as Monday. USD/CAD fell below 1.4400.

USD/JPY was the mover, peaking just above 157.80. Today was the first session of the year for the Japanese markets after the holidays on January 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Data from Japan today was services PMI (vs. November) and composites (down vs. November), somewhat mixed. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke but did not give a clear indication of when interest rates would be raised. Dai-ichi Life chairman Toshiaki Sumino expects a BoJ rate hike this month (BoJ meeting on January 23-24).

China was interesting. On Friday, USD/CNY crossed above 7.3, leading to much speculation that the People’s Bank of China is reducing support for the yuan and that the benchmark rate will be above 7.2 on Monday. Indeed, USD/CNY climbed above 7.3275 (CNY hit a 16-month low). The People’s Bank of China, however, set the benchmark USD/CNY rate at 7.1876, well below 7.2. Furthermore, the PBOC-backed Financial News newspaper confirmed the central bank’s “resolute” support for the yuan. News also that the PBOC will issue a record amount of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month, aiming to stabilize the yuan amid mounting pressures. Issuing offshore yuan notes is a strategy to absorb excess liquidity in the offshore market, reducing pressure on the currency.

Today’s data from China was the Caixin Services PMI, which hit a 7-month high of 52.2 (vs. 51.7 expected and November’s 51.5). The composite fell to 51.4, from November’s 52.3, as weaker production slowed overall growth to its lowest level since September.

Trump once again announced his main policy plans today: