Reuters’ Clyde Russell looks at several scenarios for global markets in 2025 and how they will play out. It’s a good time to think about some different ideas, even if you don’t agree with some of the points made here. Unsurprisingly, the list is dominated by uncertainty about how Trump and the Republicans will govern.
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- Trump better than expected
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- Trade threats bring concessions
- The US economy leads global growth
- China is recovering
- Peace agreements reached
- Bullish: copper
- Bear: oil, gas
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- Trump is burning with fear
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- Major trade barriers in place
- The global economy is suffering
- Higher inflation
- Bearish: copper, iron ore, oil, LNG
- Bond markets punish treasuries
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- China Recovery
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- Property/local government cleanup is successful
- Consumer spending is recovering
- New markets for green technology
- Bullish: copper, iron ore, LNG, coal
- Limited oil influence due to EV
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- OPEC+ fractures
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- Unity crumbles under the onslaught of US manufacturing
- The UAE could increase production
- The $75/bbl support is under threat
- EV adoption puts pressure on oil outlook
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- Energy transition ex-USA
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- China is flooding the market with cheap green technology
- The US is isolating itself
- Global adoption is accelerating
- Bullish: copper, lithium, minor metals, silver
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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