Factory activity growth in China in December fell short of expectations


A worker welds at an agricultural machinery manufacturer in the Qingzhou Economic Development Zone in Qingzhou, China, August 31, 2024.

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Growth in factory activity in China fell short of analysts’ expectations on Tuesday, suggesting Beijing’s stimulus measures were not enough to meaningfully stimulate the country’s struggling economy.

The country’s official purchasing managers’ index for December was 50.1, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The reading missed Reuters expectations of 50.3. Manufacturing activity was 50.3 in November and 50.1 in October. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a reading below indicates a decline.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, production and new orders increased in sectors such as agricultural and part-time food processing, general equipment and food and beverage industries.

China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in services and construction, rose to 52.2 in December from 50.0 in the previous month.

Of the 21 industries surveyed, 17 reported higher activity than the previous month, including aviation, transportation and telecommunications. The construction industry also experienced an upturn thanks to the upcoming Spring Festival holidays.

“I think one of the reasons we saw a big jump in the non-manufacturing PMI last month was partly because the construction PMI fell sharply,” said Tommy Xie, head of Asia macro research at OCBC.

Investors will also keep an eye on the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, due out on Thursday.

“2024 will be remembered as a year of chaos for the Chinese economy,” said Larry Hu, Macquarie Group’s chief China economist.

“Deflationary pressures continue as policy stimulus is just enough to hit the GDP target but nowhere near enough to restart the economy,” he added.

China’s economy has recovered somewhat following a series of stimulus measures introduced from late September.

“Overall, we still see that the (Chinese) recovery is still underway,” Xie said. “China will hit its growth target of about 5%, maybe about 4.9%, this year. So we see a bit of a bounce in 2024,” he added.

The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, reflecting recent policy adjustments. It now expects China’s GDP to grow 4.9% in 2024, compared to the previous forecast of 4.8% in 2025.

However, other recent economic data from China suggests that the world’s second-largest economy is still in disinflation, largely due to subdued consumer demand and a prolonged downturn in the housing market.

China’s consumer inflation fell to its lowest level in five months in November, while the country’s export and import figures fell short of expectations. Additionally, recent retail sales also disappointed as they missed Reuters forecasts.

China’s industrial profits fell for a fourth straight month, falling 7.3% in November from a year earlier.

Last week, China’s Finance Ministry said it would increase fiscal support next year to boost consumption by expanding trade-ins on consumer goods, increasing pensions and providing health insurance subsidies to residents.

According to Reuters, Chinese authorities have also decided to issue special government bonds worth 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) next year – the largest amount on record – to boost stimulus measures.

With Donald Trump in the White House, China will face greater challenges. Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods could further strain China’s export sector, which is already struggling with increasing trade barriers from the European Union.

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