- Bitcoin initially pulled back just a bit during Friday’s trading session, but as you can see, we have turned around to show signs of life.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to go towards the $100,000 level, which is of course a big, round, psychologically significant number and an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to.
- If we manage to climb higher, then it is likely that the Bitcoin market will really start to rise, perhaps reaching the $108,000 level where we have bounced back.
Short-term pullbacks in the Bitcoin market should still see plenty of buyers, with the 50-day EMA around $93,000. That is an area where I would expect buyers on any dip and then again to the $90,000 region from the bottom of that support level at the $88,000 level. While you can make an argument for a potential head and shoulders pattern trying to form, it doesn’t look like the market is ready to give it up.
Consolidation?
So if that’s going to be the case, this will end up being a simple consolidation, which makes perfect sense, given the massive move we saw earlier. It’s understandable that people aren’t willing to jump in with huge, huge amounts of money, but those who are more bullish on Bitcoin for the long term and our true believers here are simply buying bits and pieces. If and when the market goes down, they buy a little more. And I think that’s basically what you’re seeing. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that this is a holiday market that has been somewhat quiet as far as liquidity is concerned. And I think that’s still the case.
If that’s going to be the situation, then many traders will be waiting to see if the jobs numbers make a big impact on the Federal Reserve, which is the other side of this trade. If they stay tighter for longer, it could keep Bitcoin quiet for a while, but given the asset’s trajectory, that’s actually a good thing. It gives you a chance to get more. If we were to break below the $88,000 level then, that throws the thesis on its head, at least in the short term, and we could see this market fall towards the $75,000 region, which was a major resistance barrier earlier, and should now be a support. It is also worth noting that the 200-day EMA is in that region as well. As things currently stand, I have no interest in shorting Bitcoin. But I also recognize that we are in no rush.
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