Heaps of coal at the port of Rizhao in China’s Shandong province on November 2, 2021.
VCG | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s industrial profits fell for a fourth straight month, falling 7.3% year-on-year in November, suggesting Beijing’s stimulus measures have not yet been effective in halting the decline in corporate profits.
However, the decline in profits was smaller than the declines in previous months. They fell 10% year-on-year in October after plunging 27.1% in September – the sharpest decline since March 2020, according to Wind information.
It’s “no surprise” about continued lower industrial profits, especially in China’s disinflationary environment, said Suan Teck Kin, head of research at UOB.
However, given the stimulus programs, “the worst is over” for China’s economy, she added. “I think we’ve basically just bottomed out and now things are looking up,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
Industrial profits are an important indicator of the financial well-being of factories, utilities and mines in China. The results show how corporate balance sheets are faring following Beijing’s moves to stimulate the economy.
Between January and November, China’s industrial profits fell 4.7% year-on-year, compared with a 4.3% year-on-year decline in the first ten months of 2024.
Industrial companies with foreign investments, including those with investments from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, posted a 0.8% year-on-year profit decline in January-November.
Mining industry profits fell 13.2% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, while manufacturing profits fell 4.6%. However, the utilities sector – electricity, heat, gas and water supply – saw profits rise 10.9% year-on-year between January and November.
“With the effective implementation of existing policies, the accelerated introduction of a package of phased policies and the sustained impact of the policy combination, industrial production has grown steadily beyond the intended size,” Yu Weining, a statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, said in a Google translation of her comments in Chinese.
Despite a series of stimulus measures rolled out since late September, recent economic data from China suggests the world’s second-largest economy continues to grapple with disinflation driven by weak consumer demand and a prolonged downturn in the housing market.
China’s consumer inflation fell to a five-month low in November, while the country’s export and import data fell short of expectations. The latest retail sales data in China also disappointed and missed forecasts.
However, some parts of China’s economy showed signs of recovery, with manufacturing activity increasing for two straight months and hitting a five-month high in November.
Earlier this month, at a key economic agenda-setting meeting, China’s leaders pledged to step up monetary easing efforts, including cutting interest rates, to support the struggling economy.
The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, reflecting recent policy adjustments. It now expects China’s GDP to grow by 4.9% in 2024, compared to the previous forecast of 4.8%, while China’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2025, which is over the organization’s previous forecast of 4.1%.
However, the World Bank warned that China’s struggling real estate sector, along with subdued household and business confidence, would continue to pose headwinds to its growth.