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Finance Magnates CY Limited

Created on 08.01.2025

Bear’s gaze

– Sell BTC/USD pair and set profit taking at 92,000.

– Add stop-loss to 102,000.

– Time frame: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

– Set buy-stop at 97,000 and take-profit at 102,000.

– Add stop-loss to 92,000.

Bitcoin price reversed gains made earlier this week as concerns over rising bond yields continued. The BTC/USD pair retreated below $97,000, erasing around 6% of this week’s gains. So, will Bitcoin bounce back or continue its downward trend?

Bitcoin and other risk assets fell sharply as US bond yields continued their upward trend. The yield on the 30-year note jumped to an all-time high of 4.92%, the highest level since October 2023. Also, the 10-year yield rose to 4.70%, while the five-year yield is approaching 4.50%.

These yields have been steadily rising since the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in December. In it, the committee cut interest rates by 0.25%, as most analysts had expected. At the same time, the Fed has indicated that it will make only two interest rate cuts this year.

The rising yields are a sign that analysts are predicting that inflation will be nicer this year as Donald Trump implements his policies. While oil prices may fall, analysts expect other policies such as tariffs, deportations and tax cuts to boost inflation and make it harder for it to reach its 2% target.

The BTC/USD pair will react to the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes, which will be released later today. These minutes will provide more information about what to expect at future meetings.

The pair will also react to the upcoming US jobs numbers. ADP will release an estimate of private payrolls, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a report on Friday. A strong jobs number will point to a hawkish Fed and more downside for risk assets.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has pulled back, erasing some of the gains made earlier this week. It formed a bearish capture chart pattern, characterized by a large bearish candlestick coming after a bullish one. The candle must completely engulf the previous bear.

The BTC/USD pair moved below the middle line of the Donchian Channel indicator. It also moved slightly below the ultimate support of the Murray Math Lines tool. There are signs that it has formed a subtle head and shoulders pattern.

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Fundamental Overview

The dollar rallied yesterday on another set of hot data, as US job creation surprised to the upside and the ISM Services PMI index jumped to its highest level since 2023.

Market prices haven’t changed much, but traders are no longer fully pricing in the next rate cut before July. Next week’s US CPI report remains the key catalyst that will heavily influence market prices.

On the GBP side, the BoE kept Bank Rate unchanged as expected in the last policy decision, but we got a more split vote than expected as 3 voters wanted a rate cut compared to just 1 expected.

The market is pricing in a 65% chance of an interest rate cut at the upcoming February meeting and a total of 53 basis points of cuts by the end of the year.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the GBPUSD has erased the entire fall in the Christmas period, but yesterday moved lower again as the US data surprised to the upside. Sellers piled in with more conviction on a break below support at 1.2485 and are likely to target the 1.23 handle. Buyers, on the other hand, are likely to step in around the 1.23 marker to position new highs with a better risk-to-reward setup.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Time Frame

On the 4-hour chart, we can’t add much more here as sellers will continue to push towards the 1.23 handle, while buyers will look for a bounce there to get back into the highs.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame

On the hourly chart, we can see that we have a small descending trend line that defines the current bearish momentum on this time frame. Sellers will likely continue to rely on it to position for further declines, while buyers will look for a breakout higher to extend bullish bets to new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Fed Waller, US ADP and FOMC minutes are talking today. Tomorrow we will get the latest data on US job claims. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

Created on 08.01.2025

• Since the start of trading this week, gold prices have been trying to recover upwards with gains extending to the resistance level of $2665 per ounce.
• Obviously, that was before the gold price index’s rally stalled amid a recovery in the US dollar and stabilized around $2,650 an ounce at the time of writing this analysis.
• This comes in anticipation of important US events and data, led by today’s release of minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, followed by the release of key US employment data later in the week.

Reasons for the recent rise in the price of gold

Spot gold prices found positive momentum amid uncertainty over US tariff policy ahead of Trump’s inauguration, according to gold trading platforms. In addition, the People’s Bank of China added gold to its reserves for the second month in a row, according to official data. Now, gold traders await additional US jobs data, including the non-farm payrolls report, as well as the latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for additional guidance. Overall, the strength of the US dollar has had a bigger impact on gold price performance, as low interest rates tend to benefit the non-yielding metal.

The price of the US dollar returns to a two-year high

According to forex trading, the price of the US dollar returned to its highest level in two years after receiving strong support from the announcement of an increase in US employment opportunities, highlighting flexibility in the labor market. In addition, the latest data from the Institute for Supply Management showed an acceleration in activity and rising prices, fueling concerns about ongoing inflation and dampening expectations of a significant cut in US interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in the coming months.

According to economic calendar data, growth in the U.S. services sector accelerated in December, boosting business activity and pushing prices to the highest level since early 2023. Also, the number of U.S. jobs increased by 259,000 to 8,098 million in November, surpassing expectations and reaching a six-month high. At the same time, investors are focused on Friday’s monthly US jobs report, one of the last major data releases before the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision.

Currently, financial markets are pricing in less than 50 basis points of total easing this year.

US Treasury yields are hovering around an 8-month high

Meanwhile, another factor affecting the gold market is the rise in US government bond yields. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries held steady at around 4.69 percent on Wednesday, steady at an eight-month high as strong U.S. economic data dampened expectations for further U.S. interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

With Trump’s inauguration looming, options point to the possibility of the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5% – a level not seen since October 2023. Furthermore, speculation that Trump’s policies will fuel rapid inflation and high deficits as the US economy progresses sent yields to ten-year Treasury bills by about half a percentage point over the past month to nearly 4.7%. moreover, a wave of corporate bond issuance and $119 billion in US debt auctions this week – with more government borrowing expected in the coming weeks – added to the upward pressure.

Trading Tips

Dear follower, we know very well that no matter what the price of the dollar is, global geopolitical tensions. Also, central bank buying will remain an important factor supporting gold’s gains.

Gold price technical analysis and expectations today:

Dear Reader, According to the daily chart and gold analyst forecasts today, the price of gold is stabilizing in a neutral position and the trend will be bullish if the bulls move prices towards the resistance levels of $2665 and $2685, respectively. This, in turn, will push spot gold prices towards the psychological top of $270, which will support the strength of the bulls’ control over the trend and signal a significant new upside move. The directions of the technical indicators, led by the Relative Strength Index and the MACD, are still neutral for now.

Conversely, and in the same time frame, breaking the support levels of $2628, $2615 and $2585 will be important to keep the bears in control of the trend. at the same time, it will encourage gold investors to reconsider buying gold.

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Created on 08.01.2025

• During yesterday’s trading session, the EUR/USD pair tried to recover upwards, but its gains did not exceed the 1.0435 level before falling back to 1.0335 at the time of writing this analysis.
• This comes ahead of the release of minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, during which the bank changed the market’s outlook for future US interest rate cuts in the new year.

Inflation in the Eurozone is stronger than expected

According to reliable trading platforms, the euro got a positive boost from stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data. According to economic calendar data, annual inflation in the Eurozone accelerated to 2.4% in December, the highest level since July, from 2.2% in November, in line with market expectations. This was the third consecutive monthly increase, which reinforced the view that the European Central Bank will cautiously approach interest rate cuts.

In the same context, higher-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain boosted this sentiment, even as France and Italy posted weaker inflation numbers. Meanwhile, the market remained focused on US President Trump’s tariff plans, as he dismissed claims that his administration could adopt more moderate trade measures.

Trading Tips:

Dear Follower, the performance of the Euro Dollar will remain weaker until Trump is inaugurated and his policies towards the US and global economy become clear.

American stock indexes are stabilizing

In today’s session, and via equity trading platforms, US stock futures stabilized after a sharp sell-off in yesterday’s trading session, following a rise in Treasury yields. Yesterday, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.42%, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.89%. These losses came after the latest ISM services data showed an acceleration in activity and rising prices, raising concerns about persistent inflation and dampening expectations for further US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

According to trading, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose about 6 basis points to 4.68%, reflecting inflationary expectations and revised prices. In terms of stock performance, Nvidia shares led the decline, falling 6.2% and erasing gains driven by CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at CES about new artificial intelligence and technological advancements. Other large-cap tech stocks, companies focused on artificial intelligence, and cryptocurrency-related stocks also saw significant declines.

The US dollar is stronger ahead of important events

According to Forex trading. The US dollar, which is linked to US economic data, recovered better than expected. US bond yields and the dollar rose after new data confirmed continued inflationary pressures in the US economy, reducing the chances of a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Apparently, this came after the Institute for Supply Management services PMI survey showed that prices paid by businesses reached the highest level since February 2023. Overall, the market now believes that the Federal Reserve will not cut US interest rates again before July, confirming the “more for longer” thesis on interest rates that has supported the rise of the dollar effective from October 2024.

On the other hand, US JOLTS job vacancies rose to a six-month high of 8.098 million in November, easily beating expectations of 7.740 million and 7.744 million in the previous month. Overall, the US dollar will also remain supported amid market uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD today:

Dear Reader, the performance is moving in line with our expectations that selling EUR/USD from any level up is the best trading strategy and that the factors that weaken the Euro are stronger and may last for some time. A bearish return to the EUR/USD pair towards the support levels of 1.0300, 1.0245 and 1.0180 will bring the EUR/USD parity closer and at the same time will move all technical indicators towards oversold levels, guided by the relative strength index and the MACD. Conversely, and during the same timeframe, the daily chart will have the 1.06 level as the first target to break the current downtrend barrier.

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Over the past week, Treasuries have picked up where they left off in the late stages of last year. US 10-year yields are still on the rise, and we are now approaching 2024 highs near 4.70%. The actual high last year was around 4.74%, but that may not be too much of a hurdle if sellers continue to pile on and off the 4.70% mark this week. Are we on the warpath back to 5%?

I wouldn’t rule it out, honestly. At some point last year, that would have been unthinkable given the Fed’s outlook. But it only takes one election result and how things turned out.

As Adam pointed out here, addressing the deficit doesn’t seem to be a priority for Trump. And understandable, because it is a question that no president deals with. Ultimately it will just be a case of kicking the can down the road as always.

If yields go back to 5%, that’s a big risk that the broader markets really need to consider.

The dollar is already in a strong position to start the new year and as such could cause more tailwinds. Right now, the narrative is largely driven by Trump’s strong-arm policies. So therein lies the risk for the markets as we await his inauguration later this month.

But if yields jump again from now, I fear it will be a painful start to the year for risky trades. US indices are already looking a bit shaky after yesterday’s data. Now the focus turns to Friday’s US jobs report.

If labor market conditions remain hot and reaffirm more reasons for a Fed pause, that could be the trigger that sets the ball rolling in the bond market for yields to rise again. The upcoming showdown on Friday will be a big, big one to watch.

Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis – January 8, 2025

financial instrument: Bitcoin Futures
Price at the time of analysis: $96,095

Key Levels to Watch for Bitcoin (BTC) Future

Bullish above $96,930

• Why bullish above?
  Shift above $96,930 it would set the price above several key levels that currently act as resistance, while also serving as price magnets that pull the market towards it:

  • $96,520: Today it is developing Low Area Value (VAL).
  • $96,800: Approximate today’s VWAP at time of writing.
  • $96,900: The Point of Control (POC) from three days ago.

  Sustained price action above these levels signals that buyers are taking control, increasing the likelihood of further bullish momentum.

• Profit targets for long positions:

  • $97,300: A significant level of resistance and a potential target for partial profit taking.
  • $97,460: Today’s POC.
  • $97,560: Today’s High Area Value (VAH)logical level for additional profit taking.

Bearish Below $96,200

• Why Bearish Below?
  Drop below $96,200 would put the price below both low day and VWAP as of December 29which indicates bearish pressure and increases the likelihood of further decline.

• Profit targets for short positions:

  • $94,570: Key support level and potential area for partial profit taking.
  • $93,600: The Low Area Value (VAL) as of December 31 and the year-end support level, offering a deeper bearish target.

Understanding the tools behind the analysis

VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)

VWAP represents the average price of Bitcoin futures based on price and volume. It provides traders with a benchmark for determining whether the current price is overvalued or undervalued:

• Above VWAP: It signals buyer strength and bullish momentum.
• Under VWAP: It indicates the dominance of sellers and bearish pressure.

Value Area Concepts (VAH, VAL, POC)

• High Area Value (VAH): The upper limit of the price range, where it trades with 70% volume, acts as resistance.
• Low Area Value (VAL): The lower limit of the value area, often serves as support.
• Point of Control (POC): The price level with the most trading volume, which often acts as a magnet for price action.

Key Takeaways for Bitcoin Futures

• bullish scenario: Sustainable price above $96,930 opens the door to targeted profits $97,300, $97,460and $97,560.
• Bearish scenario: Pause below $96,200 can lead to negative goals on $94,570 and $93,600.

Compass for trading decisions

This analysis acts as a map for traders:

• If the price is fighting close $96,930 and reverses to the downside, traders could consider a short position, targeting a return towards $96,200.
• Conversely, if the price remains above $96,930traders can follow a bullish path with anticipated profit targets.

Partial profit-taking levels are provided for both scenarios to help traders lock in profits while effectively managing risk.

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Fundamental Overview

The dollar rallied yesterday on another set of hot data, as US job creation surprised to the upside and the ISM Services PMI index jumped to its highest level since 2023.

Market prices haven’t changed much, but traders are no longer fully pricing in the next rate cut before July. Next week’s US CPI report remains the key catalyst that will heavily influence market prices.

As for the euro, the eurozone CPI was in line with forecasts yesterday, although the core measure remains quite sticky around 2.7%. We remind you that the ECB lowered the reference interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.00%.

The central bank removed the paragraph saying it would “keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary”, implying that inflation risks had faded. The market sees a 93% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 100 bps cuts by the end of the year.

Technical Analysis EURUSD – Daily Time Frame

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD has erased the entire fall in the Christmas period, but is now back to its lows. A break below the 1.0332 level should see more sellers piling in for a move to the 1.0222 low. Buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rise above the 1.0332 level again to set itself up for a pullback to the 1.0450 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Time Frame

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the overall price movement was quite limited, but the bearish momentum remained in place. For now, a break below the 1.0332 level has opened the door for another test of the low at 1.0222, so buyers will be looking for the price to move back above the 1.0332 level or some catalyst before piling in with more conviction.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame

On the hourly chart, we can’t add much more here as sellers will continue to target the lows while buyers will look for a bounce above the 1.0332 level to target the next resistance at 1.0450. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Fed Waller, US ADP and FOMC minutes are talking today. Tomorrow we will get the latest data on US job claims. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.