High risk warning:

Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and exposure to loss. Before deciding to trade forex, carefully consider your investment goals, experience level and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose. Educate yourself about the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

Advisory warning:

FOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected news, blogs and other sources of economic and market information for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and potential clients and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analyzes offered on blogs or other information sources in the context of the client’s or prospect’s individual analysis and decision-making. None of the blogs or other sources of information can be considered as records. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically hereby acknowledges clients and potential clients to carefully review all claims and statements made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system providers before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. . Any news, opinion, research, data or other information contained on this website is provided on an “as is” basis as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice, and we do not intend to represent all relevant or available public information in related to a particular market or securities. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any responsibility for any lost principal or profit that may arise directly or indirectly from the use or reliance on such information, or in connection with any content presented on its website, or its editorial choices.

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Finance Magnates CY Limited

The US dollar rose after some upbeat economic data.

The main driver was JOLTS, with 8.098 million jobs up from 7.700 million, which could be the start of job gains. On a secondary note, the ISM services report rose to 54.1 from 53.3 with a dismal rise in prices paid.

According to the data, 10-year yields in the US rose to their highest level since April, up 6 basis points to 4.68%. At the same time, USD/JPY initially rallied 40 pips only to encounter resistance at earlier highs at 158.42 before pulling back somewhat. Part of that is selling stock with a big turnaround at Nvidia.

Similarly, the Euro fell 30 pips only to recoup half of that.

One slight negative in the data was the ’employment’ component of the ISM services report, which fell to 51.4 from 51.5. That comes ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Stronger US data with ISM non-manufacturing PMI rising to 54.1 from 52.1. The price paid index increased to 64.4 from 58.2. Ouch.

JOLTS vacancies increase to 8.098 million vs. estimate of 7.700 million, yields move higher, stocks lower and the US dollar rises.

The two-year yield is up 2.9 basis points at 4.30%, and the 10-year yield is trading at 4.676%, up 6.1 basis points.

Looking at US stocks, a snapshot of the broader S&P and NASDAQ indexes shows:

• S&P Index -0.75%
• NASDAQ Index -1.50%

Nvidia shares are now down -5.6% at $141.35 after trading as high as $153.13.

• EURUSD: EURUSD is back below its broken 38.2% move at 1.0378, and the 200-hour sideways moving average (green line) at 1.03744. The low price reached 1.03581. On the downside, the momentum area between 1.0332 and 1.0343 is joined by the 100-hour moving average of 1.03387. That area is the next key target on the downside for further sales. Close resistance at 1.0378 to 1.0383 keeps sellers in tight control (yellow area on chart below).

• USDJPY. USDJPY moved higher to test the high from earlier today at 158,407. There has been some pullback from that level as sellers rely. It was expected that the sellers would turn away the buyers. The next target comes at 158.86. Earlier today, the price bottomed near the converged 100 and 200 hourly moving averages (at the 157.80 area). Buyers relied on that level and were helped by better-than-expected data.

• GBPUSD: GBPUSD moved lower with a decline of 38.2% to 1.25269 and the recent 200 hour moving average at 1.25074. The 200 hourly moving average is now near resistance. Stay below keeps sellers in more control. On the downside, there is a key momentum area defined by the November-December lows between 1.24739 and 1.2487. The 100 hourly moving average comes in at 1.2469 and is another key target that should be broken to increase the bearish bias. Last week, the price fell below that momentum area and did not bottom until 1.23515. The bounce that took the corrective high to 1.2574 today briefly moved above the descending 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (currently at 1.2566), but quickly turned back down.

Bitcoin is falling back below the $100,000 level where it is currently trading at $97,362. That’s close to $5000 or -5% per day.

High risk warning:

Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and exposure to loss. Before deciding to trade forex, carefully consider your investment goals, experience level and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose. Educate yourself about the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

Advisory warning:

FOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected news, blogs and other sources of economic and market information for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and potential clients and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analyzes offered on blogs or other information sources in the context of the client’s or prospect’s individual analysis and decision-making. None of the blogs or other sources of information can be considered as records. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically hereby acknowledges clients and potential clients to carefully review all claims and statements made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system providers before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. . Any news, opinion, research, data or other information contained on this website is provided on an “as is” basis as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice, and we do not intend to represent all relevant or available public information in related to a particular market or securities. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any responsibility for any lost principal or profit that may arise directly or indirectly from the use or reliance on such information, or in connection with any content presented on its website, or its editorial choices.

Disclaimer:

FOREXLIVE™ may receive compensation from advertisers appearing on the Website, based on your interaction with advertisements or advertisers.

Finance Magnates CY Limited

AUDUSD hit the 2024 bottom on the last day of the trading year (which is unique). The price bounced higher from the low and thus managed to extend above the momentum area from the daily chart between 0.6269 and 0.6282. See the red numbered circles in the chart below.

AUD/USD moved above a key swing area yesterday, led by USD selling after a The Washington Post article suggesting that Trump’s tariffs may be less severe than expected. However, Trump denied the report, causing the pair to reverse lower in a failed breakout. The price rallied during Asia-Pacific and early European trading, breaking back above the momentum area near 0.6282. However, for the second day in a row, the momentum stalled.

Stronger US economic data today, including JOLTS jobs and ISM non-manufacturing figures (especially the price component), pushed yields higher, equities lower and AUD/USD back towards daily lows.

What’s next?

• Downside: The next key target is the converging 100 and 200 hourly moving averages at 0.6226 (blue and green lines on the chart below). A test of this level will be critical in determining the pair’s next move.
• Above: For buyers to regain control, price needs to move back above the momentum area on the daily chart up to 0.6282, offering hope for a recovery and potentially slowing sellers’ momentum.

Today will be a big test of real money demand for 10-year US notes. Treasuries will sell $39 billion in a new issue at 1:00 PM ET with results a few minutes later.

Yields are up 8.1 bps today at 4.69%, the highest since April. A weak result would put April’s high of 4.74% under pressure, while anything above 4.61% would be the highest in more than a decade. Yesterday, three-year note sales weakened by 1.2 basis points and this led to significantly higher yields.

The biggest driver today was a pair of strong US jobs and ISM services reports, which also included a jump in the ‘prices paid’ component. The market has just 35 basis points in US easing this year, with no full cuts until July.

The other big question is what is happening on the fiscal side in the US. Trump appears to be pressuring Congress to raise the debt limit and run big deficits to pay for the extension (and expansion) of his 2017 tax cuts. The president-elect will be speaking at Mar-a-Lago soon.

Here’s what BMO says ahead of the sale:

“The main risk associated with Trump’s initial actions in the White House at the moment is fueling a significant degree of inflationary fear. This is not to say that the background of rising deficit concerns, a resilient aggregate demand profile, stable inflation and the fact that New Year’s optimism is currently setting the agenda. we are biased towards the tail at 1pm EST.“

Created on January 07, 2025

• During my daily analysis of the major currency pairs, the USD/CHF pair caught my attention as we saw a lot of volatility.
• What caught my attention more than anything else is that the 0.90 level seems to have offered some amount of support.
• Whether or not it will hold remains to be seen, but this looks like a market that is essentially “being held underwater”.

Swiss National Bank

I believe the biggest driver of this USD/CHF pair at the moment is the Swiss National Bank, which recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points, when it was expected to cut 25 basis points. This suggests that the Swiss may be very nervous about what they are seeing around the world, and perhaps more specifically, the European Union. Remember, 85% of Swiss exports go to the European Union, so unfortunately for the Swiss, they are very much in bed with the Europeans economically.

Interest rate differentials continue to favor the United States, despite the fact that we saw interest rates fall slightly during Monday’s session. In other words, you are getting paid to hold this pair, despite the fact that many people view the Swiss franc as a “safe haven”. While that is true, the reality is that the US dollar is also another safe-haven currency, so that aspect of trading is a little muted here in this general vicinity.

If we were to break higher and clear the recent high of the last couple of days, then I think we’ll be making a move for a much bigger trade, maybe all the way to parity, but obviously it’s going to take a certain amount of time to get there. Keep in mind that this pair is usually a bit slower than the others, so it would definitely be a long-term move.

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Trump speaks at Mar-a-Lago in the top hour and announced a $20 billion investment in US data centers from the UAE, according to CNBC.

The amount of money going into US data centers is truly astounding, including an investment of $80 billion this year from Microsoft.

The data center announcement isn’t macro trade, but Trump could also ask questions, with tariffs high on the agenda. Trump is likely to talk about tariffs and take a hard line. That adds some upside risks to the dollar. On the other hand, any sign of ‘deal-making’ or hedging could lead the market to conclude again that he is not serious about tariffs, especially for Mexico and Canada.

He could also talk about the annexation of Greenland.

Created on January 07, 2025

• The euro initially tried to rally during Monday’s trading session, though it held on to some of its gains. It was a fairly strong day, but it is worth noting that late in the trading session we saw the Euro give up some of its gains on the first signs of significant resistance right around the 1.0430 level.
• This is a market that I think will continue to have many of the above issues.

The candle says it all

Throwing it out the way it did, I think this is a market that’s going to do exactly what I thought it was going to do in the sense that when we recover, there’s going to be a large supply of Euros ready to jump into the market. I think part of what you’re looking at right now is a situation where interest rates in America were falling during the day when news came out suggesting that the United States was going to put tariffs on everything, which of course, Donald Trump came out and assured that that’s not true and that it is actually a lie. And at that point, then the euro gave up some of its gains, the interest rate market stabilized a bit and here we are. The long-term downtrend is still very much intact and I don’t see that changing.

We get the non-farm payrolls announcement by the end of the week, which will also be a big factor. But really, at this point, it’s not until we break above the 1.06 level that I would be concerned about a downside. And so, I think you have a scenario where traders continue to look for cheap dollars and they’re going to take advantage of that. That’s exactly what I’m doing. I’m pale with exhaustion. In fact, I have no interest in buying euros anytime soon.

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US stocks opened higher, but were quickly hit by heavy profit-taking. The S&P 500 is now down 45 points, or 0.7%.

Big resistance comes from Nvidia, which traded 3% higher in the premarket and opened at a record high after CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote yesterday.

There was a big profit at the open, and the stock is now down 5.5%.

Tesla shares also struggled, falling 4.4% after the cut.