Bear’s gaze
– Sell BTC/USD pair and set profit taking at 92,000.
– Add stop-loss to 102,000.
– Time frame: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
– Set buy-stop at 97,000 and take-profit at 102,000.
– Add stop-loss to 92,000.
Bitcoin price reversed gains made earlier this week as concerns over rising bond yields continued. The BTC/USD pair retreated below $97,000, erasing around 6% of this week’s gains. So, will Bitcoin bounce back or continue its downward trend?
Bitcoin and other risk assets fell sharply as US bond yields continued their upward trend. The yield on the 30-year note jumped to an all-time high of 4.92%, the highest level since October 2023. Also, the 10-year yield rose to 4.70%, while the five-year yield is approaching 4.50%.
These yields have been steadily rising since the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in December. In it, the committee cut interest rates by 0.25%, as most analysts had expected. At the same time, the Fed has indicated that it will make only two interest rate cuts this year.
The rising yields are a sign that analysts are predicting that inflation will be nicer this year as Donald Trump implements his policies. While oil prices may fall, analysts expect other policies such as tariffs, deportations and tax cuts to boost inflation and make it harder for it to reach its 2% target.
The BTC/USD pair will react to the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes, which will be released later today. These minutes will provide more information about what to expect at future meetings.
The pair will also react to the upcoming US jobs numbers. ADP will release an estimate of private payrolls, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a report on Friday. A strong jobs number will point to a hawkish Fed and more downside for risk assets.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has pulled back, erasing some of the gains made earlier this week. It formed a bearish capture chart pattern, characterized by a large bearish candlestick coming after a bullish one. The candle must completely engulf the previous bear.
The BTC/USD pair moved below the middle line of the Donchian Channel indicator. It also moved slightly below the ultimate support of the Murray Math Lines tool. There are signs that it has formed a subtle head and shoulders pattern.
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