Australian November monthly inflation is expected to jump from October


I have previously published a post detailing the difference between monthly and quarterly inflation, as well as why quarterly inflation is preferred.

The post also had a brief overview of recent inflation data and implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia. ICYMI:

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has published a good overview, In short:

We expect headline inflation to rise to 2.6%/year in November, ½ppt

get up from

the

tempo in

October. The annual trimmed mean measure of core inflation is expected to

to have

marked a touch on

3.

4

%/year

of 3.5%/year

.

This configuration of

a

solid

elevator

in

title

CPI

but

a

slightly lower

core inflation

figures

it mainly reflects the inflationary impact of the gradual unwinding of electricity

rebates

.

This relaxation will

take place until July 2025

as currently prescribed

.

  • We expect headline inflation to have risen to 2.6%/year in November, up ½ ppt from October’s pace.
  • The annual truncated mean measure of core inflation is expected to drop to 3.4% per annum from 3.5% per annum.
  • This configuration of a solid rise in headline CPI but slightly lower core inflation figures largely reflects the inflationary impact of the gradual withdrawal of electricity rebates. This relaxation will occur by July 2025, as currently prescribed.

Impact:

Markets can

knee

jerk

react to the higher print of the title

especially after the most

recent jobs report

  • Markets may react hesitantly to a larger headline print, especially after the latest jobs report

CBAs are well above the consensus forecast:



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