I have previously published a post detailing the difference between monthly and quarterly inflation, as well as why quarterly inflation is preferred.
The post also had a brief overview of recent inflation data and implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia. ICYMI:
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has published a good overview, In short:
We expect headline inflation to rise to 2.6%/year in November, ½ppt
get up from
the
tempo in
October. The annual trimmed mean measure of core inflation is expected to
to have
marked a touch on
3.
4
%/year
of 3.5%/year
.
This configuration of
a
solid
elevator
in
title
CPI
but
a
slightly lower
core inflation
figures
it mainly reflects the inflationary impact of the gradual unwinding of electricity
rebates
.
This relaxation will
take place until July 2025
as currently prescribed
.
- We expect headline inflation to have risen to 2.6%/year in November, up ½ ppt from October’s pace.
- The annual truncated mean measure of core inflation is expected to drop to 3.4% per annum from 3.5% per annum.
- This configuration of a solid rise in headline CPI but slightly lower core inflation figures largely reflects the inflationary impact of the gradual withdrawal of electricity rebates. This relaxation will occur by July 2025, as currently prescribed.
Impact:
Markets can
knee
–
jerk
react to the higher print of the title
especially after the most
recent jobs report
- Markets may react hesitantly to a larger headline print, especially after the latest jobs report
CBAs are well above the consensus forecast: