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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
(adjective and noun) the current holder of a position or position
For more than a century, one of the most fundamental concepts in political science is that of incumbent advantage. You can call it electoral gravity, a force that pulls everyone towards the person or party running the show. The reasons are many. Being in power provides the benefits of strong name recognition, established fundraising networks, media relations and a track record.
But it’s no longer clear that it’s holding, and many of the things that once provided a boost at the ballot box may now generate a backlash. In 2024, if more than half of the world’s population eligible to vote in an election, incumbents are ousted from the US to the UK and beyond.
If the long-term trend across the democratic world is one of robust economic growth and development more broadly defined, having a record in power is a good thing. Barring a nasty economic shock or a serious misstep, parties can run successful campaigns centered on the tangible improvements they delivered during their tenure.
With stagnation now the norm, it was turned on his head. “Vote for us if you want another four years of flat living standards and other things getting worse” is not an obvious vote winner.
Likewise, in an increasingly fragmented media landscape where new politicians can speak directly to voters, the prominence of mainstream news organizations is no longer a great motivator. If Elon Musk had his wayeven the incumbent’s fundraising advantage may be a thing of the past.
If the trend continues, it will be bad for reasonable centers, for measured rhetoric and for further policy achievements. It appears that we are in a new era where all candidates, incumbents and outsiders, have a strong incentive to run as populist upstarts, promising quick wins and radical reforms.