The major US stock indexes erased the declines recorded by:

• The Dow fell -200.57 points to the lowest values
• S&P fell -26.39 points
• The NASDAQ index is down -115.53 points

A snapshot of the current market shows:

• The D industrial average rose 23.51 points, or 0.06%, to 42,551.87.
• S&P index +7.25 points or 0.12% to 5916.28.
• The NASDAQ index rose 5.5 points or 0.03% to 19495.18.

The small-cap Russell 2000 remains negative on the day. It is trading down -18.15 points or -0.81% at 2231.65 points.

US yields have helped this cause as they are now trading lower at least at the short end:

• 2-year 4.274%, -2.1 basis points
• 5 years 4.450%, -1.9 basis points
• 10 years 4.679%, -0.6 basis points.
• 30 years 4.919%, +0.7 basis points.

Bitcoin is down -$2,200 or -2.28% at $94,733. The low price reached $94,506. The maximum was at $97,248.

Crude oil is lower after testing its 200-day moving average and finding willing sellers. The price is currently down $1 to $73.41 (see post here)

Basically, the ADP jobs report was weaker than expected, but initial jobless claims were stronger.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed confidence that inflation will continue to move toward the 2 percent target, with a potential further rate cut in 2025 depending on inflation trends. He emphasized that the economy is still on solid foundations, with no signs of a significant weakening of the labor market in the near future. Although recent progress in inflation has been slow due to factors such as housing and non-market services, base effects and improved data point to better results in 2025. He also stressed that geopolitical conflicts and tariffs could represent renewed inflationary pressures, but he did not foresee that tariffs to trigger permanent inflation or significantly influence monetary policy decisions. Waller noted that long-term yields could include a premium to inflation, which the Fed will address, and acknowledged that US deficits could also contribute to higher yields. He pointed to the uncertainty regarding tariffs, with the assessment that draconian measures are unlikely and that their short-term impact on inflation should be minimal. Additionally, Waller suggested that some ongoing service price inflation may reflect lagging wage increases, which should moderate over time.